vantage geopol provides clear, evidence-based insights on the geopolitical forces shaping our world. We help decision-makers across business, government, and the policy community understand global dynamics and their practical implications.
Our work focuses on the issues that matter most: shifting power structures, economic realignment, technology disruption, and climate risk. With deep expertise in China and the Indo-Pacific, we offer nuanced analysis that cuts through complexity and supports informed, strategic choices.
In addition to analysis and advisory, vantage geopol is an active voice in the public conversation. We deliver keynotes, panel contributions, and executive briefings that bring clarity to uncertainty, combining rigorous analysis with engaging storytelling.
Our goal is simple: to equip leaders with the foresight and perspective they need to navigate a rapidly changing world.
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"Our leaders deeply valued Merriden’s insights and expertise in the China Spotlight Session, appreciating her top-notch ability to succinctly summarise complex themes. The session was a standout for our leaders."
– Catherine Mudford, Acting CEO, Asialink Business
"It’s been really great having Merriden work with our team. We have always been so impressed with her insights and the confidence with which she delivers them. This is the kind of depth of thought and intellectual rigour people need. Our clients have been wowed."
– Peter Gothard, Asia Pacific Head of Restructuring Services, KPMG
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Contact vantage geopol for our geopolitical analysis and insights: research, reports, scenario modelling, strategic planning, C-suite and board briefings, presentations, panels, and keynotes.
biography
Dr Merriden Varrall
Founder and CEO, vantage geopol
Special Advisor Geopolitics, KPMG South ASPAC
Lowy Non-Resident Fellow
Dr Merriden Varrall is a geopolitical strategist and insights consultant with over two decades of experience across government, international organisations, think tanks, and the private sector. She is the founder of vantage geopol, and also serves as Special Advisor, Geopolitics, for KPMG South ASPAC.
In both roles, Merriden helps businesses understand and navigate the complex global geopolitical environment. She provides business-relevant insights into global, regional, and local geopolitical trends, and works with clients to develop strategies that mitigate risk and maximise opportunity.
A former UN diplomat based in China, Merriden is a sought-after commentator on East Asia, China’s foreign policy, and Australia’s bilateral relationship with China. From 2014 to 2018, she was Director of the East Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, where she is now a Non-Resident Fellow. Prior to that, she was Assistant Country Director and Senior Policy Advisor at the United Nations Development Programme in China, focusing on China’s international development cooperation policy.
Merriden's earlier career includes roles at the Australian Treasury and the Department of Family and Community Services. Merriden spent nearly eight years living and working in China, including lecturing in foreign policy at the China Foreign Affairs University and conducting fieldwork for her doctoral research.
Merriden holds a PhD in Chinese foreign policy from Macquarie University and the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, a Master’s in International Affairs from ANU, and a Bachelor of International Studies from UTS. Her analyses have appeared in Foreign Policy, The New York Times, Nikkei Asian Review, The Quarterly, East Asia Forum, and The Interpreter, among others.
what vantage geopol can do for you
public speaking & executive engagements
Keynotes, panels, and strategic conversations at major events. We also deliver tailored briefings for boards and C-suites, and facilitate strategy planning workshops that connect global disruption with local decision-making.
"I love working with Merriden, she has been such a fantastic speaker at our events. Amazing, so articulate, so well thought out, one of the best commentators on geopolitics I have heard."
– Robyn Langsford, Global Leader of Family Business or ASPAC lead Private Enterprise or National Lead KPMG Private in Australia
Topics include:
Supply chains in an unstable world: Explore how supply chains have become strategic assets rather than cost centres, and how geopolitical shocks, trade fragmentation and regional tensions are reshaping sourcing, risk and resilience.
Energy security, climate risk, and the new economics of power: Explore how energy transition, climate impacts and geopolitical competition are colliding, and what this means for prices, reliability, investment decisions and long‑term strategy.
Technology, AI, and geopolitical fragmentation: Explore why technology is no longer neutral, and how AI, data, semiconductors and digital infrastructure are increasingly shaped by state power, regulation and strategic competition.
Operating in a world of certain uncertainty: Explore why volatility is no longer cyclical, and how boards and executives can strengthen decision‑making, build resilience and act with discipline in an unpredictable environment.
From globalisation to fragmentation: strategic competition and business exposure: Explore how strategic competition between major powers is ending the era of predictable globalisation, and what this means for trade, investment, technology and operating assumptions.
Social cohesion, trust and operating risk: Explore how social unrest, polarisation and declining trust are shaping markets, workforces and brand risk, and why these dynamics now matter for business performance and social licence.
research & insight
We produce sharp, evidence-based analysis from insights papers to bespoke geopolitical assessments, designed to inform leadership and policy.
Explore tailored geopolitical research that helps leaders navigate both immediate disruption and longer‑term structural change. This work supports decision‑making in moments of shock, like elections, conflict escalation, policy shifts, or market volatility, as well as deeper analysis of the forces reshaping the operating environment over years and decades.
The focus is on synthesising politics, economics, technology, climate and security into clear, decision‑relevant insight. This includes separating signal from noise in fast‑moving situations, while also identifying which trends are structural, durable and likely to shape strategy, risk and investment over time. Research is designed to inform board discussions, strategic planning and long‑term judgement, not just general understanding.
strategic scenario modelling
We guide organisations through immersive simulations that explore plausible futures and stress-test decisions. Our Dynamic Response Labs place leaders in realistic, high-stakes geopolitical scenarios where decisions must be made under pressure. Participants navigate unfolding crises, test strategic responses, and build adaptive capacity in a fast-moving, collaborative environment.
"Merriden's session set the perfect tone for the day. The perspectives she shared on the geopolitical environment were deeply insightful and helped anchor the broader strategic conversations that followed. It was clear from the Board’s engagement just how valuable the contributions were."
– Australian Ethical
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And more: custom engagements that blend foresight, strategy, and storytelling to meet the moment.
what collaboration do you need?
articles and podcasts
Iran: noise vs meaning
Recent strikes on Iran have pushed oil, shipping, and insurance risks back into board‑level conversations. The immediate market impacts matter, a lot, but in the longer run, they are not the main story.
Why the geopolitics of Japan’s election matters for Australian investors
The Feb 2026 election result in Japan matters for investors in how it clarifies the policy environment in which market conditions will evolve.
Japan election implications for investors
The mother of all trade deals is about more than just trade.
This article written for KPMG unpacks the historic EU-India trade agreement, why it's so geopolitical, and explores some of the ways it impacts businesses here in Australia.
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Geopolitics and Family Offices: vulnerabilities and actions
Rising geopolitical volatility means that financial, legal, reputational and personal exposures collide for family offices. In this article, I unpack how geopolitics is increasingly shaping the risk landscape, and what questions FOs should be asking.
Geopolitics and Family Offices
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AICD Boardroom Confidential
In a polycrisis world, the most important board conversations often start with better questions. I recently joined the Australian Institute of Company Directors Boardroom Confidential podcast with Bennett Mason to discuss how geopolitics is reshaping risk, strategy and governance, and not as a background issue, but as a core board capability.
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The 'Donroe Doctrine' and why it matters for Australian Businesses
The Donroe Doctrine -- part witty pun, part signal of geopolitical fragmentation -- matters for Australian business strategy. I wrote this article for KPMG to help explain what the Donroe Doctrine is, why it matters, and what business leaders can do to build their resilience in this changing context.
The ‘Donroe Doctrine’ and Why It Matters for Australian Businesses
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Populism and Australian Business: Why it Matters Now
Populism is reshaping the global business environment—and Australian companies can’t afford to ignore it.
Populism and Australian Business: Why It Matters Now
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2027 or not 2027, that is the (my) question
I've been trying to work out where this apparently broadly accepted narrative of 'China is going to invade Taiwan in 2027' has come from.
2027 or not 2027, that is the (my) question
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The geopolitics of climate change
The geopolitical implications of climate change and our unpreparedness for the disruption it will bring.
The geopolitics of climate change
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Leading Through Fog: Trust, Truth, and the Role of Business in 2025
One of the key geopolitical themes we identify is the rise in mistrust of political institutions and the status quo around the world, and why that matters to Australian business (spoiler alert: it really does).
Leading Through Fog: Trust, Truth, and the Role of Business in 2025
thought leadership
The South Australian election and so what for business
The shift away from the political centre in Australia makes long-term decisions harder and affects what governments prioritise. Even when centrists still hold power, their policy space is reshaped and constrained by ideas that were once seen as outliers. This all increases uncertainty for organisations.
South Australian elections and so what for business
Iran, markets, and meaning: separating signal from noise
Recent strikes on Iran have pushed oil, shipping, and insurance risks back into board‑level conversations. The immediate market impacts matter, a lot, but, as I set out here, in the longer run, they are not the main story.
Navigating populism: Strategic imperatives for Australian business
This report I authored for KPMG on 'Global populism and Australian business – shifts and implications' provides business leaders with a clear understanding of how populism is influencing global markets and institutions, and what strategic actions they can take to stay resilient and competitive. The report offers strategic guidance for business leaders navigating political volatility and global disruption.
Global populism and Australian business
Global Geopolitics from an Australian Perspective
This chapter examines who Australia thinks it is, and how that national strategic identity affects Australia’s understanding of regional and global geopolitics.
Global Geopolitics from an Australian Perspective | SpringerLink
Top geopolitical risks to Australian business 2024–25
We wrote this report, the second in our KPMG Top Geopolitical Risks series, to highlight that risk isn't about discrete disconnected shocks, it's interconnected, and the speed with which one event can trigger another matters. Systems thinking is required. Looking at risk scenarios tells us more about where we're vulnerable, and how we can be better prepared for the future.
Top geopolitical risks to Australian business 2024–25
Shaky ground: Are we getting China right?
In this article for "Australian Foreign Affairs", I explore whether the conventional wisdom that underpins Australia's China policy is useful and productive.
Shaky ground: Are we getting China right? | Australian Foreign Affairs
Geopolitics and the Australian minerals industry
Understanding the importance of critical minerals to geopolitics has never been more, well, critical. The need for certain substances for every aspect of modern life makes them a tool of power and influence. Minerals' role in defence changes the way nation-states negotiate about everything else. I wrote this paper for KPMG to help Australian business better understand the shift away from an economic logic of supply and demand, towards a geopolitical logic that sometimes makes no economic sense.
Geopolitics and the Australian minerals industry
The geopolitics of oil and gas
As my colleagues and I wrote for this KPMG paper on energy security, the transition to renewables is a deeply geopolitical issue -- energy security is national security; wealth, power, and prosperity go hand in hand with energy supply. For business, understanding the geopolitics of the energy transition will help position for success.
The geopolitics of oil and gas
Australian agriculture in a geopolitical maelstrom
In Australia, the agriculture industry is particularly impacted by geopolitics. It is inextricably interconnected with the global market. I wrote this analysis for KPMG to explore how these geopolitical mega-trends could affect the Australian agricultural industry, generating both opportunities and risks.
Australian agriculture in a geopolitical maelstrom
Geopolitics and the Australian Financial Services Industry
Zeroing in on four geopolitical megatrends, this report aims to spark conversation among financial leaders, prompting them to consider their risk exposure, resilience, and ability to recognise and seize opportunities.
Geopolitics and the Australian Financial Services Industry
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The impact of geopolitical disruption on Australian retailers
Retailers are highly exposed to geopolitical risk, but with foresight they can position themselves for resilience and ongoing success. This paper I wrote with colleagues explores some of the key geopolitical risks facing retailers and provides suggestions for navigating the complexity.
The impact of geopolitical disruption on Australian retailers
Geopolitics and the Australian higher education sector
Higher ed is key to Australia's prosperity. We wrote this paper for KPMG to help Australian business understand how geopolitics changes the dynamics around both supply and demand in this critical sector.